When will AppsFlyer IPO
Leader sits at 22% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 1, 2027
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
341 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will AppsFlyer IPO
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26AUG01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before May 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27MAY01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27MAR01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27JUN01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27JAN01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27FEB01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27APR01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26NOV01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26JUL01
When will AppsFlyer IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26DEC01
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 26% probability that AppsFlyer will complete an IPO by June 2026, based on the leading contract outcome. This reflects trader assessment that a near-term public offering is unlikely but possible. The probability is driven primarily by the lack of public IPO announcements or regulatory filings as of May 2026, offset by the company's scale (a major mobile attribution platform) and historical precedent of tech unicorns pursuing public markets. The main catalyst for resolution comes in just weeks: if AppsFlyer announces IPO plans or files with regulators before June 1, 2026, the probability would likely spike; conversely, if June passes without such signals, the market will shift focus to later timeframes. Broader tech IPO conditions and venture capital sentiment also influence the current discount.
- ›AppsFlyer has not publicly announced IPO intent or filed S-1 documentation as of May 2026
- ›The company operates in mobile analytics with significant enterprise customer base, a sector that has supported successful public offerings
- ›Current market probability (26%) is materially lower than probabilities for SpaceX (79% before July 2026) and Anthropic announcement (72-73% before Nov-Dec 2026), suggesting relative skepticism about AppsFlyer's immediate IPO timeline
- ›Tech IPO market conditions in 2026 and venture capital funding climate directly influence private company liquidity decisions
- ›June 1, 2026 represents an imminent binary decision point—either the company files/announces or the market reprices expectations to later periods
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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