What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 64¢ (64% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2027. 374 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 57.3% and 166.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $244 open interest, making the 64¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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64¢

Bid/Ask 63/72¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $244·Closes May 1, 2027·374d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-27MAY01

7-day price15 snapshots · 2 regime

65¢63¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $244 open interest, making the 64¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The dramatic 7-day price surge from 6¢ to 63¢ suggests either new information about Discord's IPO timeline or thin-market manipulation, warranting caution before treating this as a genuine probability estimate. The asymmetric implied yields (56.5% for Yes vs. 163.9% for No) and wide 9¢ spread further indicate this contract lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable market signal.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 57.3%

IY (No) 166.0%

Adj IY 83%

CRI 2

Overround 4.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	57.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	166.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	83%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:15:35 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-27MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →