What is the current probability for "When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3070.3% and 5.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 6¢ spread despite modest $2,161 open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential difficulty executing positions.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/6¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $1,961·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPOFANNIE-27FEB01

7-day price11 snapshots · 2 regime

9¢4¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 6¢ spread despite modest $2,161 open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential difficulty executing positions. The 7¢ price implies only a 7% probability of a Fannie Mae IPO by early 2027, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 3,018% annualized yield—a classic risk-premium signal for a low-liquidity, binary event with substantial tail risk. The recent sharp price decline from 8¢ to 4¢ over seven days warrants caution, as it may reflect either informed selling or a liquidity-driven move in a market with minimal depth.

Resolution rules

If Fannie Mae confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3070.3%

IY (No) 5.3%

Adj IY 1535%

CRI 24

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3070.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1535%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:30 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOFANNIE-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →