What is the current probability for "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Olipop IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 600.8% and 18.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Olipop IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that When will Olipop IPO?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $200 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 15/19¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $200·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPOOLIPOP-27APR01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $200 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 592% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine conviction about Olipop's IPO prospects by April 2027. With a 4¢ spread and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a speculative micro-market lacking sufficient depth for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If Olipop confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 600.8%

IY (No) 18.7%

Adj IY 300%

CRI 6

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	600.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	300%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:05 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOOLIPOP-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →