What is the current probability for "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 1, 2026. 223 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Rippling IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3105.5% and 8.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Rippling IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that When will Rippling IPO?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. The 25¢ price reflects extremely low conviction with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume, $5 open interest), making the 9¢ spread and 3039% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 5/14¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $5·Closes Dec 1, 2026·223d remaining

KXIPORIPPLING-26DEC01

Analysis

4d ago

The 25¢ price reflects extremely low conviction with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume, $5 open interest), making the 9¢ spread and 3039% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 228-day timeframe to expiry is substantial, yet the neutral regime and modest 19 Cliff Risk Index suggest no imminent catalyst is priced in, indicating the market may be underweighting Rippling's known fundraising momentum and valuation (last reported at $7.4B in 2024). This appears to be a low-liquidity long-shot bet rather than a liquid probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If Rippling confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3105.5%

IY (No) 8.6%

Adj IY 1553%

CRI 19

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3105.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1553%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:12 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPORIPPLING-26DEC01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →