What is the current probability for "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2027. 405 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Rippling IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 338.8% and 23.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Rippling IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Rippling IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that When will Rippling IPO?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 31% price unreliable for serious positioning.

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30¢

Bid/Ask 21/30¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $201·Closes Jun 1, 2027·405d remaining

KXIPORIPPLING-27JUN01

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

23¢21¢ current

Apr 1121¢Apr 18

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 31% price unreliable for serious positioning. The 315.5% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to thin liquidity, while the 9¢ spread represents a massive 29% bid-ask gap relative to the midpoint. With 410 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, the market has adequate time for resolution, but traders should demand significant compensation for the liquidity risk before committing capital here.

Resolution rules

If Rippling confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 338.8%

IY (No) 23.9%

Adj IY 169%

CRI 4

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	338.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	169%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:29 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPORIPPLING-27JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →