Where will Bernardo Silva go next
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
110 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Where will J
Where will James Trafford go next?: Newcastle
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-NEW
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Barcelona
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-BAR
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Real Madrid
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-RMA
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Atletico
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ATM
Where will James Trafford go next?: Tottenham
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-TOT
Cluster 2
Where will M
Cluster 3
Where will Bradley Barcola go next
Cluster 4
Where will Ayyoub Bouaddi go next
Cluster 5
Where will Erling Haaland go next
Cluster 6
Where will Rafael Leao go next
Where will Rafael Leao go next?: AC Milan
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-ACM
Cluster 7
Where will Sandro Tonali go next
Where will Sandro Tonali go next?: Tottenham
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02STONALI-TOT
Cluster 8
Where will Harry Kane go next
Where will Harry Kane go next?: Bayern Munich
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02HKANE-BMU
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects the market's assessment that Bernardo Silva will transfer away from his current club during this transfer window. The midfielder's transfer value depends on two primary factors: interest from elite European clubs seeking midfield reinforcement, and whether his current club Manchester City remains willing to sell. The main catalyst for resolution will be the start of the summer transfer window in June 2026, when clubs typically announce major signings and player movements become official. Transfer activity typically accelerates through June and July, with most significant deals completed by late August before the new season begins.
- ›Manchester City's stated interest in retaining Silva versus his personal desire for a new challenge or increased playing time
- ›Which top European clubs are actively pursuing Silva and their financial capacity to meet City's valuation demands
- ›Silva's age and contract terms with Manchester City, which affect his market value and negotiating position
- ›Recent performances and injury status that influence club interest and transfer fee expectations
- ›Timing of official transfer window opening in June 2026 and announcement of completed transfers
What moved the line
- Jun 21Arsenal↑90pp2→92¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17PSG↓69pp95→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Arsenal↑38pp9→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20PSG↑24pp24→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Tottenham↓21pp72→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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