Where will Bernardo Silva go next
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23K
17 contracts
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
48 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Where will J
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Arsenal
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ARS
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Barcelona
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-BAR
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Atletico
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ATM
Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?: Crystal Palace
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JMATETA-CRY
Where will Julian Alvarez go next?: Real Madrid
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-RMA
Cluster 2
Where will Ayyoub Bouaddi go next
Cluster 3
Where will Bradley Barcola go next
Cluster 4
Where will Rafael Leao go next
Cluster 5
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 6
Where will Kenan Yildiz go next
Where will Kenan Yildiz go next?: Juventus
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02KYILDIZ-JUV
Cluster 7
Where will Eli Junior Kroupi go next
Where will Eli Junior Kroupi go next?: Bournemouth
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02EJKROUPI-BOU
Cluster 8
Where will Michael Olise go next
Where will Michael Olise go next?: Bayern Munich
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02MOLISE-BMU
Analysis
This 44% probability represents the market's assessment that Bernardo Silva will transfer to a specific destination club next. The market reflects uncertainty around his future as a key player at his current club, with the probability shaped by contract status, competing clubs' interest levels, and financial capacity to complete a deal. Key catalysts include the official transfer window periods and any public statements from Silva, his club, or interested parties about his availability. The moderate probability suggests meaningful doubt—neither a highly likely departure nor a near-certain departure. Resolution depends on whether Silva formally transfers before the next season begins, with secondary factors including injury status, managerial changes, and broader financial market conditions affecting European clubs' spending capacity.
- ›Current employment status and remaining contract length with his existing club
- ›Financial resources and competitive ambitions of clubs publicly linked to Silva
- ›Silva's age, performance level, and injury history relative to his market value
- ›Timing of the official transfer window and any interim regulatory or financial constraints on target clubs
- ›Publicly reported interest from rival clubs and statements from Silva or club officials regarding his future
What moved the line
- Aug 17Manchester City↑40pp53→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Juventus↓27pp93→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Crystal Palace↑18pp35→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Liverpool↑12pp73→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Atletico↓11pp82→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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