What is the current probability for "Where will James Trafford go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will James Trafford go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4062.6% and 11.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will James Trafford go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will James Trafford go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Where will James Trafford go next?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and $0 open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the extreme 3978.6% implied yield on the Yes side.

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10¢mid

Bid/Ask 5/15¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-MCI

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and $0 open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the extreme 3978.6% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the 5¢ stable price over seven days, suggesting minimal market depth and potential difficulty executing any position. With 174 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a speculative, illiquid contract where the astronomical yield reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

If James Trafford's next club is Manchester City before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4062.6%

IY (No) 11.3%

Adj IY 2031%

CRI 19

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4062.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2031%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:12:09 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-MCI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →