What is the current probability for "Where will Rodrygo go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Rodrygo go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 71.3% and 641.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Rodrygo go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Rodrygo go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Where will Rodrygo go next?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 10¢ spread and 69.2% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability.

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80¢mid

Bid/Ask 75/85¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RODRYGO-RMA

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 10¢ spread and 69.2% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true probability. The 623% implied yield on the No side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero Yes price rather than genuine market conviction. With 176 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a nascent or abandoned market that lacks sufficient trading activity to generate meaningful price discovery on Rodrygo's transfer destination.

Resolution rules

If Rodrygo's next club is Real Madrid before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 71.3%

IY (No) 641.4%

Adj IY 321%

CRI 3

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	71.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	641.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	321%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:06:36 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RODRYGO-RMA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →