Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN · closes Jun 1, 2026 · 47 days remaining
Price
Last
58¢
Bid
57¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$887
Open Interest
$825
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 583.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1025.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.02 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3185% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 9.49 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1008% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
13 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:45:56 PM
About this market
If Cory Mills leaves the House before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN yes 100