Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before May 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26MAY · closes May 1, 2026 · 16 days remaining
Price
Last
38¢
Bid
38¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$882
Open Interest
$871
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 3680.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1382.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.03 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 17803% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.98 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 3584% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
11 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:46:18 PM
About this market
If Cory Mills leaves the House before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26MAY yes 100