Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This market on Brandon Johnson's reelection shows extreme mispricing with a 1023% annualized yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2,085 open interest, suggesting illiquidity rather than genuine conviction in his loss.
Analysis
This market on Brandon Johnson's reelection shows extreme mispricing with a 1023% annualized yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2,085 open interest, suggesting illiquidity rather than genuine conviction in his loss. The sharp 7-cent price decline over a week combined with a wide 5-cent spread indicates thin order books and potential stale pricing, while the 678-day timeframe to the February 2028 close provides substantial room for repricing as the 2027 election approaches. The 19 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as this contract may face resolution uncertainty or liquidity crises closer to expiration.
Resolution rules
If Brandon Johnson wins Chicago Mayoral Election in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMAYORCHI-27-BJOH yes 100