Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election
Leader sits at 55% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alexi Giannoulias
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Brandon Johnson
Spread
48pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 23, 2028
548 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election
Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Brandon Johnson
KXMAYORCHI-27-BJOH
Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Maria Pappas
KXMAYORCHI-27-MPAP
Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Joe Holberg
KXMAYORCHI-27-JHOL
Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Alexi Giannoulias
KXMAYORCHI-27-AGIA
Analysis
The current 46% probability represents the market's assessment of the leading candidate's likelihood of winning Chicago's mayoral election. This probability reflects a competitive race where the frontrunner holds a substantial but not dominant position. The level is driven by the candidate's current polling standing, name recognition, and fundraising relative to other contenders. Factors that could shift the probability include upcoming debates, campaign events, voter turnout patterns in key precincts, and how undecided voters break in the final weeks before the election. The single biggest catalyst will be Election Day results, but intermediate developments such as major endorsements, debate performances, or changes in voter enthusiasm could meaningfully move markets beforehand.
- ›The leading candidate's current polling position versus the runner-up (who is priced at 5%) suggests a competitive but not decisive advantage
- ›Kalshi contract volume and pricing across the 4 outcomes indicates active market participation and disaggregement among traders
- ›The 46% price reflects roughly 2-to-1 odds against, implying significant uncertainty about the ultimate winner despite the frontrunner's current lead
- ›Turnout and demographic shifts in Chicago precincts could materially affect the outcome given typical mayoral election volatility
- ›Campaign momentum and late-breaking endorsements or scandals have historically moved mayoral race probabilities meaningfully in the weeks before voting
What moved the line
- Aug 17Alexi Giannoulias↑5pp53→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Alexi Giannoulias↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Maria Pappas↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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