Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. The market is pricing Nithya Raman at 58% to win the 2026 LA mayoral race, but the 92.3% implied yield on the No side and extreme 292% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing Nithya Raman at 58% to win the 2026 LA mayoral race, but the 92.3% implied yield on the No side and extreme 292% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing. With only $6,033.73 in 24-hour volume against $98,373 open interest, liquidity is notably thin for a binary event 412 days out, creating execution risk for larger positions. The 3.09 volatility ratio and 0.7 info arrivals per hour indicate this market is reactive to campaign developments, with recent price movement from 48¢ to 51¢ suggesting modest momentum toward the Yes outcome.
Resolution rules
If Nithya Raman wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMAYORLA-26-NRAM yes 100