Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 248 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1080.7% and 20.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1080.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	495%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions