Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026
Leader sits at 84% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4000
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Above 6000
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 6000
KXMEASLES-26-6000
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 8000
KXMEASLES-26-8000
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 4000
KXMEASLES-26-4000
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 10000
KXMEASLES-26-10000
Analysis
This market asks whether the United States will record more than 6,000 measles cases during 2026, with traders currently pricing a 31% probability. Measles case counts depend primarily on vaccination coverage rates and the emergence of new outbreaks in under-immunized populations. The resolution will be determined by confirmed case counts reported by the CDC, which publishes weekly surveillance data throughout the year. Key drivers include whether current vaccination momentum continues, whether new clusters emerge in specific communities, and international travel patterns that could introduce the virus. By mid-year, trend data from CDC reports will provide clarity on whether the U.S. is tracking toward this threshold or remaining well below it.
- ›U.S. measles vaccination coverage rates for MMR, particularly among school-age children and new birth cohorts
- ›Number and size of measles outbreaks in communities with below-average immunization rates, tracked via CDC surveillance reports
- ›CDC weekly case counts through June 2026, which would establish whether the pace is on track to reach 6,000 by year-end
- ›International travel-associated introductions and secondary transmission chains, especially given global measles activity
- ›State and local public health response effectiveness, including vaccination campaign intensity and outbreak containment measures
What moved the line
- Aug 15Above 6000↓3pp28→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 6000↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 8000↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 4000↑3pp77→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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