Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced notable downward pressure, declining 7 cents over the past week from 67¢ to 60¢, suggesting recent negative information flow regarding measles case projections.
Analysis
The market has experienced notable downward pressure, declining 7 cents over the past week from 67¢ to 60¢, suggesting recent negative information flow regarding measles case projections. The 62% Yes price implies roughly 4,000-4,500 cases are expected, but the extreme volatility (235% realized, 2.38 vol ratio) and asymmetric yields—with the No side offering 211% annualized return versus 94% for Yes—indicate significant uncertainty and potential mispricing between the two outcomes. With $46.4k open interest but only $163 in daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to OI, creating execution risk for larger positions.
Resolution rules
If the number of measles in 2026 is above , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMEASLES-26-4000 yes 100