What is the current probability for "Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 248 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 986.2% and 22.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a very low probability (14%) for exceeding 8,000 measles cases in 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 865% implied yield, suggesting significant asymmetry between risk and reward.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 13/14¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $38,111.88·Closes Jan 1, 2027·248d remaining

KXMEASLES-26-8000

7-day price82 snapshots · 46 regime

17¢13¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 27

Analysis

11d ago

The market is pricing in a very low probability (14%) for exceeding 8,000 measles cases in 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 865% implied yield, suggesting significant asymmetry between risk and reward. Volume is thin at $737 over 24 hours against $41,580 open interest, indicating limited liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges. The price has declined 2 cents over the past week despite the substantial yield premium, and with 259 days to resolution, there's meaningful time for epidemiological developments to shift market sentiment.

Resolution rules

If the number of measles in 2026 is above , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 986.2%

IY (No) 22.0%

Adj IY 455%

CRI 7

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.08

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	986.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	455%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:39:59 PM

Observability mediumEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 12:38:08 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMEASLES-26-8000 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →