What is the current probability for "Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 44¢ (44% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 110.8% and 38.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,317 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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44¢

Bid/Ask 37/43¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $4.37·OI $1,321.81·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXMI13D-26-DMCK

7-day price4 snapshots · 3 regime

38¢37¢ current

Apr 1136¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,317 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—109.9% for Yes versus 37.9% for No—suggest the market may be mispriced or simply illiquid rather than reflecting genuine conviction about McKinney's nomination chances. With 566 days until expiry and a modest 7¢ spread, this contract offers high theoretical returns but carries significant execution risk given the lack of trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Donavan McKinney wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 110.8%

IY (No) 38.2%

Adj IY 46%

CRI 2

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.16

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	110.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	38.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	46%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.16	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:55:01 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMI13D-26-DMCK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →