Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.2M
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
454 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?: Donavan McKinney
KXMI13D-26-DMCK
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 30% chance that Shri Thanedar wins the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 13th congressional district. The current probability reflects moderate competition in the race, likely shaped by factors such as Thanedar's existing political profile, the strength and fundraising capacity of other candidates in the primary, and local voter preferences in this Democratic-leaning district. The nomination will be resolved by the Michigan primary election, scheduled for August 2026, which will determine the actual winner through voter turnout and support across the district. Movements in this probability would likely respond to campaign developments including endorsements from local party figures, fundraising disclosures, polling data if available, candidate dropout announcements, or shifts in candidate visibility and ground operations in the district.
- ›Thanedar's vote share performance in the August 2026 Michigan Democratic primary election relative to competing candidates
- ›Campaign fundraising totals and spending rates for Thanedar compared to other nominees in the race through primary season
- ›Endorsements from Michigan Democratic establishment figures, labor organizations, or local elected officials
- ›Voter name recognition and favorability polling data for Thanedar versus primary opponents among MI-13 registered Democrats
- ›Whether competing candidates consolidate or remain fragmented heading into the August primary election
What moved the line
- Aug 4Donavan McKinney↑6pp85→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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