What is the current probability for "Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2655.0% and 7.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. Nashville's 6¢ price reflects a 6% championship probability with extremely illiquid conditions—zero 24-hour volume despite $8,160 open interest and a wide 3¢ spread.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

6¢

Bid/Ask 5/6¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $230.37·OI $10,443.6·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining

KXMLSCUP-26-NSH

7-day price20 snapshots · 24 regime

6¢5¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 20

Analysis

5d ago

Nashville's 6¢ price reflects a 6% championship probability with extremely illiquid conditions—zero 24-hour volume despite $8,160 open interest and a wide 3¢ spread. The 2601.5% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic illiquidity artifact rather than a genuine opportunity, as the thin market and 267-day timeline to the 2026 MLS Cup create substantial execution risk. The recent price recovery from 4¢ to 5¢ to current 6¢ suggests modest accumulation, but the neutral regime score and 19 Cliff Risk Index indicate this market lacks the depth and conviction needed for confident positioning.

Resolution rules

If Nashville is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2655.0%

IY (No) 7.4%

Adj IY 1328%

CRI 19

Overround -0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2655.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1328%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:14:19 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSCUP-26-NSH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →