Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Berg's odds have declined sharply from 14¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or competing candidates gaining traction in the MN-2 DFL primary race.
Analysis
Berg's odds have declined sharply from 14¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting recent negative developments or competing candidates gaining traction in the MN-2 DFL primary race. The 1,637.6% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme illiquidity ($1,929 open interest, $219.52 daily volume) and a wide 9¢ spread, making this market highly speculative and prone to slippage. With 201 days until the November 2026 close and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract carries significant uncertainty around primary timing and candidate field dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Kaela Berg wins the nomination for the Democratic (DFL) Party to contest the 2026 MN-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMN2D-26-KBER yes 100