How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market has experienced dramatic price compression, plummeting from 36¢ to 13¢ over seven days—a 64% decline suggesting recent conviction that 30-year mortgage rates won't exceed 6.7% in 2026.
Analysis
This market has experienced dramatic price compression, plummeting from 36¢ to 13¢ over seven days—a 64% decline suggesting recent conviction that 30-year mortgage rates won't exceed 6.7% in 2026. The 941% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high but reflects the current 25¢ price floor rather than genuine opportunity, while the 12¢ spread and minimal $50 daily volume indicate severe illiquidity that would make meaningful position entry difficult. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this contract carries execution risk despite the neutral regime, and the sharp recent move warrants caution about whether the market has overcorrected or if it reflects genuine Fed pivot expectations.
Resolution rules
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.7% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.7 yes 100