How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $37 open interest, making the 941% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $37 open interest, making the 941% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 13% probability pricing appears pessimistic given current 30-year mortgage rates around 6.8-7.0%, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the tail risk of rates exceeding 7.0% before year-end 2026, though the wide 15¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate significant uncertainty about resolution mechanics. The recent price movement from 8¢ to 13¢ over seven days warrants caution, as it could reflect either informed positioning or noise in an illiquid micromarket.
Resolution rules
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.0% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T7.0 yes 100