What is the current probability for "Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 14, 2026. 237 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2415.3% and 9.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Francesco Bagnaia be the MotoGP World Champion?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 14, 2026. This market prices Bagnaia at just 6% despite him being a two-time defending champion, creating an extreme 2,367% implied yield on the Yes side—a notable mispricing signal worth investigating.

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6¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $184·Closes Dec 14, 2026·237d remaining

KXMOTOGP-26-FRBA

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices Bagnaia at just 6% despite him being a two-time defending champion, creating an extreme 2,367% implied yield on the Yes side—a notable mispricing signal worth investigating. The 4¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity, with only $184 in open interest, making this more of a stale quote than an active market. With 242 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the lack of trading activity indicates minimal market confidence in either outcome's valuation.

Resolution rules

If Francesco Bagnaia wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2415.3%

IY (No) 9.8%

Adj IY 1208%

CRI 16

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2415.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:56:37 PM

Observability directEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMOTOGP-26-FRBA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →