Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 261 days remaining
Price
Last
20¢
Bid
20¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$4,984
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? · match confidence 0.67 · close-time delta 39h
Counterpart price
23¢
This price
20¢
Spread (this − cp)
-3¢
Counterpart IY
470.5%
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 558.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 34.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 279% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
2 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 6:53:02 AM
About this market
If Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK yes 100