Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will win Rookie of the Year?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 12, 2027. This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 2429.9% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 4.2% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the tie/co-winners scenario at 6¢ despite $1.4M open interest and solid $131k daily volume.
Analysis
This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 2429.9% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 4.2% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the tie/co-winners scenario at 6¢ despite $1.4M open interest and solid $131k daily volume. The 1360% realized volatility and 3.01 vol ratio indicate this contract experiences dramatic price swings, though the 2¢ spread remains reasonable and the market has held flat at 4¢ over seven days, suggesting current pricing may reflect genuine consensus skepticism about co-winners occurring in the 2025-26 NBA season. With 361 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the cliff risk index of 24 warrants monitoring as resolution approaches, particularly if rule changes or unprecedented circumstances emerge that could trigger a tie outcome.
Resolution rules
If Tie/Co-Winners wins the Pro basketball Rookie of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAROY-26-TIE yes 100