When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in a 65% probability of an FDA BLA submission for lonvo-z by end-2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($75 open interest, zero 24-hour volume) and wide 10¢ spread suggest limited conviction and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 65% probability of an FDA BLA submission for lonvo-z by end-2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($75 open interest, zero 24-hour volume) and wide 10¢ spread suggest limited conviction and potential mispricing. The asymmetric implied yields (97.7% for Yes vs. 202.3% for No) indicate the No side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns, though the neutral regime score and modest 2¢ price appreciation over seven days suggest the market lacks directional momentum. With 260 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently-priced contract.
Resolution rules
If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-27JAN01 yes 100