Game 4: Dallas at Minnesota Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Game 4: Dallas at Minnesota Winner?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1566% and implied yields exceeding 2000%, suggesting either a highly uncertain outcome or potential mispricing relative to actual game probabilities.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1566% and implied yields exceeding 2000%, suggesting either a highly uncertain outcome or potential mispricing relative to actual game probabilities. The 7-cent spread on a 48-cent price is reasonable given the $73.94 daily volume and $63.76 open interest, though liquidity remains thin for a binary sports event just 21 days from resolution. The sharp 5-cent price climb over seven days (41¢ to 46¢) combined with a vol ratio of 3.26 indicates recent information arrival (1.7 events/hour) is driving directional momentum toward Minnesota, warranting cross-venue comparison to assess if this represents genuine edge or venue-specific mispricing.
Resolution rules
If MIN Wild wins the Game 4: Dallas at Minnesota professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR25DALMIN-MIN yes 100