Will LaMonica McIver be the Democratic nominee for NJ-10?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will LaMonica McIver be the Democratic nominee for NJ-10?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread. The massively skewed implied yields—1232.1% on "No" versus 3.4% on "Yes"—reflect near-zero probability pricing, though the high Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggests significant model uncertainty around this low-probability event. With 563 days to expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a dead market lacking meaningful price discovery.
Resolution rules
If LaMonica McIver wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-10D26-LMCI yes 100