Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme confidence in Sue Altman's nomination odds at 98¢, but the extremely thin liquidity of $1,279.78 open interest and wide 7¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine market depth—the 259.3% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high for such a near-certain outcome, indicating potential mispricing or illiquidity premium rather than true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme confidence in Sue Altman's nomination odds at 98¢, but the extremely thin liquidity of $1,279.78 open interest and wide 7¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine market depth—the 259.3% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high for such a near-certain outcome, indicating potential mispricing or illiquidity premium rather than true probability. The sharp 9¢ price jump over seven days combined with low volume and a 563-day runway to the 2026 election creates cliff risk, as late-breaking political developments could dramatically shift nomination dynamics in a market where few shares are actually trading.
Resolution rules
If Sue Altman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-SALT yes 100