Will Shanel Robinson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Shanel Robinson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 563-day runway to the November 2027 close, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific nomination outcome.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 563-day runway to the November 2027 close, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific nomination outcome. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an extraordinary 1015.5%, indicating the market structure heavily penalizes low-probability bets—this is a mathematical artifact of pricing near zero rather than genuine opportunity. The recent price decline from 11¢ to 6¢ over seven days and the wide 8¢ spread signal this is a dead market with no meaningful liquidity for position-building.
Resolution rules
If Shanel Robinson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-SROB yes 100