Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $572.82 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $572.82 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 2728.7% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a wide 8¢ spread suggests minimal market confidence in either outcome and possible mispricing given the long 433-day timeframe to the June 2027 close. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days, coupled with a moderate 32 cliff risk index, indicates this is a highly speculative contract where the true probability of Chino-Tavarez securing the NY-13 Democratic nomination remains genuinely uncertain.
Resolution rules
If Theo Chino-Tavarez wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNY13D-26-TCHI yes 100