Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic nominee for NY-13
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$236K
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
364 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic nominee for NY-13
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?: Darializa Avila Chevalier
KXNY13D-26-DCHE
Cluster 2
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?: Adriano Espaillat
KXNY13D-26-AESP
Analysis
This market reflects a 50% probability that Theo Chino-Tavarez will be the Democratic nominee for New York's 13th congressional district. The outcome depends primarily on candidate entry decisions, primary voter preferences in the district, and endorsement patterns among Democratic leadership. Historically, open-seat races in this district have shown varying levels of competitiveness depending on the field size and candidate profiles. The district has leaned Democratic in recent elections, making the Democratic nomination a significant predictor of general election success. Key uncertainty centers on whether other potential candidates enter the race and how consolidated support becomes among the Democratic base. The primary election date and filing deadlines will serve as major resolution points for the underlying ambiguity about candidate participation and voter alignment.
- ›Current field composition and number of declared Democratic candidates competing for the nomination
- ›Endorsement patterns from established Democratic figures and organizations in NY-13
- ›Voting history and primary turnout trends among Democratic voters in this specific district
- ›Campaign funding and organizational capacity demonstrated by Chino-Tavarez versus competing candidates
- ›Filing deadlines and final candidate entry decisions that determine the ultimate primary contest structure
What moved the line
- Jun 24Darializa Avila Chevalier↑19pp33→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Adriano Espaillat↓11pp67→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Darializa Avila Chevalier↓6pp40→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Adriano Espaillat↑4pp61→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Darializa Avila Chevalier↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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