Will Dawn Rasmussen be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Dawn Rasmussen be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $668 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $668 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (119.8% for Yes vs. 34.7% for No) suggest the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 2-point cliff risk indicate no imminent catalyst. With 566 days until expiry and a slight downward drift from 37¢ to 35¢ over the past week, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If Dawn Rasmussen wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 OR-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-02D26-DRAS yes 100