Will Monique DeSpain be the Republican nominee for OR-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Monique DeSpain be the Republican nominee for OR-04?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 5¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—4.1% on Yes versus 1010.9% on No—reflect the market's near-certainty that DeSpain won't secure the nomination, though the astronomical No yield suggests minimal conviction given the zero liquidity. With 566 days until expiry and a modest 16 Cliff Risk Index, there's substantial time for conditions to shift, but the complete absence of trading activity indicates this candidate has virtually no market support.
Resolution rules
If Monique DeSpain wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 OR-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-04R26-MDES yes 100