What is the current probability for "2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 131.3% and 26.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $632 open interest, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 31/38¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $632·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMDOCU-27-NUI

7-day price112 snapshots · 2 regime

32¢31¢ current

Apr 931¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $632 open interest, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 124% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 189% realized volatility suggests either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether "Nuisance Bear" will secure a nomination by the 2027 Oscars, though the neutral regime and minimal recent price movement (flat at 32¢ over 7 days) indicate limited new information flow. With 624 days until expiration and a low cliff risk index of 2, there's ample time for documentary production and awards buzz to develop, but traders should be cautious given the thin liquidity and wide 7¢ spread.

Resolution rules

If Nuisance Bear has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 131.3%

IY (No) 26.5%

Adj IY 131%

CRI 2

RV 265%

VR 2.35

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	131.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	26.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	131%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	265%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:24:19 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMDOCU-27-NUI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →