2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite negligible 24-hour volume ($0) and minimal open interest ($99), suggesting the 25¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than informed consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite negligible 24-hour volume ($0) and minimal open interest ($99), suggesting the 25¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than informed consensus. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the substantial gap between Yes yield (266.6%) and No yield (12.8%) indicates the market is heavily skewed toward underpricing a documentary nomination outcome. With 624 days until expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 5, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where any meaningful volume could significantly move the price.
Resolution rules
If Tutu has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMDOCU-27-TUT yes 100