Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market on Sara Duterte's 2028 presidential prospects shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,785 open interest, suggesting illiquidity that could make position entry/exit difficult.
Analysis
This market on Sara Duterte's 2028 presidential prospects shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,785 open interest, suggesting illiquidity that could make position entry/exit difficult. The 61¢ price has declined 4¢ over seven days while maintaining a wide 4¢ spread, and the asymmetric implied yields (24.1% for Yes vs. 42.4% for No) indicate the market may be pricing in meaningful uncertainty about her candidacy or electability. With 1,141 days to expiry, the relatively high 21% risk-adjusted yield on the Yes side could reflect either genuine underpricing or compensation for the extended timeline and low liquidity risk.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Philippine presidential election in 2028 is Sara Duterte, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28-SDUT yes 100