Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. The Republican presidency contract is trading at a significant asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 45.8% annualized yield versus just 17.2% for No, suggesting market participants view downside risk as more attractive despite the neutral regime.
Analysis
The Republican presidency contract is trading at a significant asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 45.8% annualized yield versus just 17.2% for No, suggesting market participants view downside risk as more attractive despite the neutral regime. With over $94k in open interest but modest 24-hour volume of $9.7k, liquidity is moderate and the 2¢ spread is tight, though the recent 2¢ decline over seven days indicates a slight bearish drift that warrants monitoring. At 40% implied probability with more than three years to expiration, this contract has substantial time value and the low cliff risk index of 2 suggests relatively stable pricing dynamics ahead of the November 2029 close.
Also on polymarket at 39¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPARTY-2028-R yes 100