Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing November 7, 2028.

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39¢
Bid/Ask 38/39¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,045.423·OI $601,590.924·Closes Nov 7, 2028·930d remaining
0x0a99479228e93524b25676ae69b94bd3f4278a6bca8d8c265c84d24755399cf5
7-day price9 snapshots · 32 regime
40¢39¢ current
Apr 1139¢Apr 13
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 37¢+2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.95IY 48.0%Close-time delta 8775h

Resolution rules

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 61.4%
IY (No) 25.1%
Adj IY 31%
CRI 2
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)61.4%
IY (No)25.1%
Adj IY31%
CRI2

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:58:40 AM
Observability lowEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x0a99479228e93524b25676ae69b94bd3f4278a6bca8d8c265c84d24755399cf5 yes 100

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