Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 0% and 5%?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 195% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 43.2% on No, suggesting strong consensus that Massie will either win decisively or lose outright rather than eke out a narrow victory.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 195% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 43.2% on No, suggesting strong consensus that Massie will either win decisively or lose outright rather than eke out a narrow victory. The price has surged dramatically from 7¢ to 32¢ over seven days amid elevated realized volatility of 278%, indicating recent information arrival has shifted expectations toward a close race becoming less likely. With only $152 in 24-hour volume and $2,300 open interest, liquidity is thin for a market with nearly 400 days to expiration, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-KY4R26-TMAS-P2 yes 100