Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%
Leader sits at 40% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Lula da Silva, 0-5%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$111
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
378 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?: Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26-FBOL-P7
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 5%?: Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26-FBOL-P2
Will the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 0% and 5%?: Lula da Silva, 0-5%
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26-LSIL-P2
Will the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be above 15%?: Lula da Silva, ≥15%
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26-LSIL-P57
Will the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%?: Lula da Silva, 5-10%
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26-LSIL-P7
Analysis
This contract resolves if Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's first-round presidential election with a margin between 5% and 10% over the second-place finisher. Currently priced at 10 cents, it reflects relatively low probability compared to stronger outcomes favoring Lula da Silva. Market pricing suggests traders view a Bolsonaro victory with this specific margin as unlikely, with heavier weight on either Lula winning by a larger margin (47 cents for Lula ≥15%) or Bolsonaro performing worse if he wins at all (4 cents for Bolsonaro 0-5%). The outcome depends on voter turnout patterns, regional voting coalitions, and whether either candidate consolidates support more effectively than opponents. The first-round vote is scheduled for October 2026, and pre-election polling trends through September will be the primary driver of repricing before resolution.
- ›Current polling spreads between Lula and Bolsonaro and whether the gap narrows or widens between now and October 2026
- ›Regional voting patterns in Northeast and Southeast Brazil, which historically determine margin magnitudes
- ›Voter turnout rates and turnout differential by demographic group, affecting both absolute votes and margin calculations
- ›Third-candidate performance and whether any challenger consolidates enough support to compress the top-two margin
- ›Late campaign events or economic data (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate moves) released in final months that could shift voter preference intensity
What moved the line
- Sep 18Lula da Silva, 0-5%↑28pp18→46¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Lula da Silva, 0-5%↓17pp35→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%↑6pp18→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Lula da Silva, 0-5%↓6pp46→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Lula da Silva, 5-10%↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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