Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%
Leader sits at 49% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Francesca Hong, ≥15%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Lisa Demuth, 0-3%
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$23K
liquid
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
374 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Francesca Hong, ≥15%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P57
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 3% and 6%?: Ed Case, 3-6%
KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P4
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: Lisa Demuth, 0-3%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVMNNOMR26-LDEM-P1
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?: Francesca Hong, 6-9%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-FHON-P7
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Lisa Demuth, ≥15%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVMNNOMR26-LDEM-P57
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?: Lisa Demuth, 9-12%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVMNNOMR26-LDEM-P10
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?: Lisa Demuth, 6-9%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVMNNOMR26-LDEM-P7
Analysis
This contract asks whether Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary by a margin between 30% and 40%. The current 42% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome band among market participants. The price depends primarily on expectations about the primary field's competitiveness—whether Platner emerges as a clear front-runner with substantial but not overwhelming support, or whether the race fragments into closer competition or a landslide. The Maine Democratic primary election, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this question by revealing Platner's actual winning margin against his opponents. Until then, shifts in polling data, endorsements, campaign momentum, and field dynamics could move this probability in either direction.
- ›Platner's current standing in Maine Democratic primary polling relative to main opponents and overall field size
- ›Whether consolidated endorsements or strategic candidate withdrawals occur that would shift vote share concentration
- ›Total number and viability of competing Democratic candidates—fewer viable candidates make extreme margins more likely
- ›Recent polling trend direction and margin of error in Maine Democratic electorate samples
- ›Scheduled primary election date of June 2026 and any intervening events that might affect turnout or candidate viability
What moved the line
- Aug 5Francesca Hong, ≥15%↓36pp74→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Francesca Hong, ≥15%↑13pp43→56¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Lisa Demuth, 0-3%↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Francesca Hong, ≥15%↓5pp79→74¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Francesca Hong, ≥15%↑5pp38→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026last 94% · 0d
- Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recesslast 7% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 electionlast 87% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primarylast 42% · 1d
- Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2last 31% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026 markets see massive volume on long-shot presidential nominee
Abdul El-Sayed as 2028 Democratic nominee has 1.3 million volume at 1¢ – an extreme outlier. Meanwhile, Democratic House control trades at 84¢ with 755k volume. Traders should monitor these for sentiment shifts as midterms approach.
Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.