Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
John Sununu, ≥40%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
John Sununu, ≥30%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 8, 2027
354 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?: John Sununu, ≥30%
KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P65
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?: John Sununu, ≥40%
KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P70
Analysis
This contract asks whether Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary by a margin between 30% and 40%. The current 42% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome band among market participants. The price depends primarily on expectations about the primary field's competitiveness—whether Platner emerges as a clear front-runner with substantial but not overwhelming support, or whether the race fragments into closer competition or a landslide. The Maine Democratic primary election, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this question by revealing Platner's actual winning margin against his opponents. Until then, shifts in polling data, endorsements, campaign momentum, and field dynamics could move this probability in either direction.
- ›Platner's current standing in Maine Democratic primary polling relative to main opponents and overall field size
- ›Whether consolidated endorsements or strategic candidate withdrawals occur that would shift vote share concentration
- ›Total number and viability of competing Democratic candidates—fewer viable candidates make extreme margins more likely
- ›Recent polling trend direction and margin of error in Maine Democratic electorate samples
- ›Scheduled primary election date of June 2026 and any intervening events that might affect turnout or candidate viability
What moved the line
- Sep 17John Sununu, ≥30%↑3pp96→99¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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