Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Andy Biggs, ≥15%
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Adrian Boafo, ≥12%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
364 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Andy Biggs in the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary be above 15%?: Andy Biggs, ≥15%
KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVAZNOMR26-ABIG-P57
Will the margin of victory for Adrian Boafo in the 2026 MD-05 Democratic primary be above 12%?: Adrian Boafo, ≥12%
KXPRIMARYMOV-MDPRIMARY05D26-ABOA-P56
Will the margin of victory for Brad Lander in the 2026 NY-10 Democratic primary be between 20% and 25%?: Brad Lander, 20-25%
KXPRIMARYMOV-NY10D26-BLAN-P22
Will the margin of victory for Alan Wilson in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary runoff be between 12% and 16%?: Alan Wilson, 12-16%
KXPRIMARYMOV-KXGOVSCNOMR26-AWIL-P14
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary with a margin between 30% and 40%. The 79% price suggests high confidence in this outcome occurring, though notably lower conviction than some other electoral markets. The primary driver of this probability is likely Platner's current positioning and name recognition within Maine's Democratic electorate, while uncertainty around late-breaking endorsements, turnout patterns, and competing candidates could shift the margin significantly. The resolution will depend on the actual vote distribution when Maine holds its primary election. Key factors that would move this probability include shifts in recent polling data on Platner's support levels, changes in the primary field that alter competitive dynamics, and any substantial campaign developments affecting voter enthusiasm or consolidation around alternatives.
- ›Platner's current polling margin relative to nearest challenger and the stability of that lead
- ›Turnout expectations in a Maine Democratic primary and whether that favors any particular candidate
- ›Whether late endorsements or campaign events consolidate support around Platner or fragment the vote
- ›The number and viability of competing candidates remaining in the race
- ›Changes in registered Democratic voter composition or turnout modeling that could affect final margin distribution
What moved the line
- Jun 24Brad Lander, 20-25%↑9pp15→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Brad Lander, 20-25%↑7pp8→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Alan Wilson, 12-16%↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Alan Wilson, 12-16%↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Brad Lander, 20-25%↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01last 97% · 1d
- Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Mainelast 57% · 4d
- Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Mainelast 83% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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