Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 10% and 15%?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 10% and 15%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 1037.3% implied yield on the Yes side and 8¢ spread suggest severe mispricing rather than genuine market consensus, likely reflecting the market's nascent stage rather than informed pricing. With 405 days until expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, traders should await deeper liquidity before treating this contract as a reliable hedge or speculation vehicle.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 10% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P12 yes 100