Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 0% and 5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 0% and 5%?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 554.1% implied yield on the Yes side and 8¢ spread suggest severe mispricing or lack of market participation rather than genuine market consensus that a close Johnson victory is impossible. With 405 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this contract carries meaningful execution risk and would require significant capital commitment to establish a meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Julie Johnson in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P2 yes 100