Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $324 in 24-hour volume against $334 open interest, creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $324 in 24-hour volume against $334 open interest, creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position. The 103.2% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated relative to the 52% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the 45¢ price may reflect thin order books rather than genuine probability consensus. The sharp 7-day rally from 2¢ to 42¢ warrants caution—such dramatic moves in low-liquidity markets often reverse, and with 489 days to expiry, there's ample time for sentiment shifts around Fishback's candidacy viability.
Resolution rules
If James Fishback finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-KXGOVFLNOMR-2-JFIS yes 100