Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 443% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction that Lasher has zero chance of finishing second. With 433 days until the June 2027 close, there's substantial time for the market to develop liquidity and price discovery, though the current 8¢ spread and Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggest this remains a speculative, thinly-traded contract.
Resolution rules
If Micah Lasher finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-NY12D26-2-MLAS yes 100