Rain in Chicago in Apr 2026?

This market shows extreme skew toward rain, with the Yes price surging 84 cents over seven days to 87¢, suggesting either new weather forecasting data or late positioning ahead of the May 1st close. The No side offers a staggering 16,046% implied yield, but this is a mirage—the massive cliff risk index of 6 and 368% realized volatility indicate this contract could swing violently if April weather patterns shift, making the theoretical yield on No contracts largely illusory given execution risk. With only $5,693 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is thin enough that large trades could move the price significantly, and the 1.4 information arrivals per hour suggest active monitoring of weather models through the final two weeks.

Resolution rules

If the total precipitation at CLIMDW in Chicago in Apr 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade