Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market has experienced significant upward momentum, nearly doubling from 11¢ to 21¢ over seven days, though zero 24-hour volume suggests this move may lack recent conviction.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant upward momentum, nearly doubling from 11¢ to 21¢ over seven days, though zero 24-hour volume suggests this move may lack recent conviction. The 691.1% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 199-day timeframe, indicating either substantial mispricing or genuine tail-risk concerns about Mace's tenure, though the thin $1,400 open interest and wide 4¢ spread raise liquidity concerns. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-driven market.
Resolution rules
If Nancy Mace resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRETIREMACE-26 yes 100